Minimized to the cold end of the year, but ...

Ultimately the 05/12/11 to France and Western Europe:

 

The arrival of the cold now seems minimized for the month of December, while almost all numerical models led to believe a sharp drop in temperature in the second half of the month.

Currently, numerical calculations seem to agree in maintaining a relatively mild weather in France: see above our aggregate curve for Paris.

This relative softness, marked by a westerly flow to the southwest, synonymous with gentle but also to lack of snow in the uplands, could be replaced - as originally planned - one week between Christmas and cold New Year's Day .

Given these forecasts, it is plausible that the cold occurs more in January 2012, and the assumption of a cold winter without the Western Europe is possible ... In this respect, seasonal forecasts of 'AccuWeather, we relayed here, appear to be the best scenario.

 
It will be interesting to study more precisely the causes of such a turnaround, the seasonal patterns have been bad this year. Analyses are obviously affected.

 

Broker Meteorology