May 2011 IRI Seasonal Forecasts for summer

 The IRI's climate forecasts are issued monthly, usually between the 14th and 19th of the month. For most of the globe, they show estimated probabilities that precipitation and temperature over several upcoming 3-month periods will be below normal, near normal or above normal. The forecasts range out to 6 months into the future, and can be viewed for the globe as a whole or for an individual continent in somewhat greater detail. Information about the forecast maps, and how they are developed, is given in the discussion link above the forecast map when a region is selected. The following are taken from the current forecast discussions: Africa: In southwest Mali in June-August 2011, there is a 50% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 15% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years. Asia: In part of the upper east coast of China in June-August 2011, there is a 25% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 40% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years. Australia: In central New Zealand in June-August 2011, there is a 40% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 25% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years. Europe: For June-August 2011, there is a 40% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 25% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years in Spitsburgen, in the country of Norway. Middle East: In a small pocket near the border of eastern Kazakhstan and northwestern China in June-August 2011, there is a 20% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 45% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years. North America: For June-August 2011, there is a 25% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 40% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years in part of the northwestern U.S. Pacific Islands: On the main Fiji island in June-August 2011, there is a 40% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 25% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years. South America: For June-August 2011, there is a 25% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 40% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years in significant portions of southern and southwestern Brazil. 
 
IRI Forecasting Team