Europe: the threat of a very cold winter

While ours analysts had anticipate the return to a longer dull this summer with the resumption of rainfall in the normal (which is ultimately surplus), our recent modeling of the atmosphere suggest the prospect of another cold winter on the Western Europe, an unusual cold which could even move this Autumn. In an already burdened by economic crisis, a severe cold could have an additional impact on consumption, particularly on energy prices (gas, oil ...) whose prices are then likely to experience new outbreaks.

We must get to the obvious: in recent years, the seasons again become more marked with the return from one cycle to cold winters. This trend was already evident in the southern hemisphere since the 2005 and seems to be emerging gradually in the northern hemisphere.
These cycles are part of the natural climate variability, whatever the proponents of the single thought of global warming. But we do not play the "climatological - skeptical" we see.

After global warming and compelling climax between 1998 and 2008 on average, it seems that our climate has entered into "plateau phase", ie stabilization. The first signs of cooling are already observable, especially in the southern hemisphere.

The reasons for climate change are many, but we retain an important factor: the decline of solar activity is confirmed, which could lead, in 2020, the return of conditions similar to the 1970s, or even more (conditions similar to those of the 19th century) according to some models.

On the other hand, while climatologists expected at the end of the cold La Nina episode in the Pacific, possibly with the introduction of a weak El Nino (warm anomaly), the latest statistics show that is not so: the Nina, partly responsible for the harsh winter, could continue and persist until 2012.

From the point of view much closer, it seems that Europe is moving towards a new cold winter, a cold could be set up quickly in the autumn of the Eastern Europe west. It would be a dry cold in general, with a risk of significant storm weather in the Mediterranean.

On the other hand, the U.S. could maintain a trend "softer" than the average on the East Coast, while cold again be careful on the west coast of Canada and in Alaska.

Regarding the eastern U.S. and Quebec, this last winter has proved an anomaly "softer" could lead to intense snowfall, with blizzards that can paralyze the economy, we remain cautious so that about this time.

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We believe that a major increase in renewable energy use should be achieved to help offset global warming. While there are some US government programs aimed in this direction, there is simply not
enough money being spent yet to achieve this goal in a timely manner.