Europe : hot and stormy summer

  
Seasonal forecasts updated at the end of winter reveal a trend for warmer spring and summer, with the prospect of severe heat waves between May and July.

 

This trend seems quite reliable in view of the persistence of numerical models to consider the anomaly temperature.

 

----> However, for precipitation, the reliability is less good but two parameters emerge:

 

- Spring drought could continue on Western Europe (France, United Kingdom), highlighting an already tight water situation and that looks like that of 1976, after a year already excetpionnelle 2011.

 

- But this anomaly may lessen dry early in the summer with a stormy situation and the return of heavy rain. Summer rains are certainly not effective in terms of groundwater recharge due to evaporation, but could minimize and stabilize the dry spring.